China, with a population of 1.36 billion, is getting ready to end one of the most famous and controversial birth control measures in the world. In force for 40 years, the ?one-child policy? will be reviewed by the government of the world?s most populous nation, which already fears the economic and social impacts to come. Evandro Carvalho, a professor at Rio de Janeiro Law School (FGV Direito Rio), has worked for two years as a senior foreign expert and professor of the Center for BRICS Studies at Fudan University (Shanghai) and elaborated an analysis on how this change could influence the life of the Chinese people.The concern with an aging population is not new. Evandro explains that, since the 1990s, Chinese authorities have been looking at its low birth rate, at 1.6 births per woman at the time. According to the data of the UN?s World Population Prospects report, released in July, it is estimated that China?s population growth could be negative for the first time in history, as of 2028.Data from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences point to an even bigger problem. The demographic dividend in China will reach a turning point exactly in 2015. In other words, if nothing is done, the future points to a scenario of workforce shortage and a growing elderly population. It is estimated that after 2023, if there is no reversal in this scenario, the economically active population will decrease by up to eight million every year. By 2030, Chinese seniors will total 400 million; representing a quarter of the population (they currently represent 1/7). Considering the demographic structure today, in 2050 China will become the ?oldest? country in the world.?With birth control, China took measures against a population growth above what it would be possible to bear in terms of costs. This is not a trivial matter. It is estimated that in its first decades the one-child policy reduced the number of births by 400 million. China could have had a population of about 1.8 billion. Ensuring employment, health, education, security for the current population of 1.3 billion is already a noteworthy task. Monitoring birth rate and the demographic pyramid is a job for all governments planning to adopt public policies. Now the Chinese government is dealing with the reverse situation: the need to stimulate an increase in birth rate. It does so because, without it, the country?s economy will suffer in the near future?, explained the professor.More than putting an end to the restriction on the number of children per couple, the government will have to change a cultural aspect created from that policy, to which the Chinese have become used to. Tests carried out in some cities in the country to encourage couples to have the second child found that the birth rate grew less than expected. The main reason may be simply economic, since raising a child in big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzen ranges from 1 million yuan (US$ 163,000) to 2 million yuan (US$ 329,000) from birth to graduation at the University. Only the costs with education total half that amount. According to Rio de Janeiro Law School?s professor, other aspects must be taken into account.?In addition to the financial costs, there are other reasons why couples postpone or do not want a second child. Many young couples are concerned about their careers and there has been a growing number of din couples (acronym for dual income, no children). This may be a consequence of the one-child policy. Young people today are more selfish, think only about themselves and are taking advantage of the facilities that China's economic development and major cities offer. Thus, they are not willing to donate their time to care for others, even for a child. Couples already close to their 40s cannot rely on their parents, now in their 70s, to help them raise a second child. And women, in turn, fear losing their jobs if they become pregnant again, and a family life that is far from equalitarian?, he said.An aging population faced by China is already a problem for many countries, especially for developed nations. Governments wonder who will pay taxes and many already discuss new immigration policies to import workforce, which creates even more controversy. Many countries have adopted birth stimulus policies such as granting generous maternity and paternity leaves, money and other benefits in addition to opening kindergartens and child care centers, what enabled mothers to reconcile work and motherhood. Evandro believes; however, that Chinese women would not see this kind of policy as a key incentive to have children, since grandparents, to some extent, still play a central role in the creation of their grandchildren.?It seems that, before taking any other public policy measure similar to the ones adopted by rich countries to stimulate an increase in births, the Chinese government will gradually ease its birth policy and track the results. That is the speculation for this year: the government will give permission for all couples to have two children regardless if their parents are the only child or not. Personally, I believe that the government is heading towards total liberation of the birth control policy, allowing couples to have as many children as they want, even if for only a specific time period. And perhaps even with this measure, the country may not manage to keep its population stable. In such a case, the government will have to be more creative. Otherwise, China will be faced with a slow but fundamental transformation in its national project?, he concluded.