Factors causing deflation of the IGP-M are disappearing, according to IBRE

According to IBRE's assistant superintendent of Inflation, Salomão Quadros, the factors that caused the deflation of the IGP-M in recent months are disappearing and the index already shows the future of deflation.
机构
01 九月 2014

The General Price Index - Market (IGP-M), published by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) on August 28, fell for the fourth consecutive month, remaining at -0.27%. However, according to IBRE's assistant superintendent of Inflation, Salomão Quadros, the factors that caused the deflation of the IGP-M in recent months are disappearing and the index already shows the future of deflation.There are strong indications that deflation is coming to an end. It remained with the same intensity during the previous three months, but now there are signs showing that the process is debilitating, said Quadros. He explains that negative changes in May, June, July and August were caused by different reasons. In May, for example, deflation was the result of a compensation of agricultural shocks early this year, coupled with the effects of currency appreciation. In June, the decline was influenced by the confirmation of evidences of a super grain harvest in the United States, which caused a deceleration in commodity prices. In July and August, deflation was a portrait of the great news of the result of American agriculture. That's all over. All the effects of the drought have been absorbed, the effects of the super crop are already running out, the exchange rate is not appreciating as much, said the superintendent. Although hopeful, the numbers should not follow the jump from the previous year. Salomão warns that while deflation is left behind - and will probably continue until October - comparing to 2013, figures should stay at a lower level. The 12 month rate, currently at 4.89%, can still moderately decrease. But what matters at the moment is a deflationary process that, with its end, will bring back a more normal life, with positive rates, he concluded.Please click here to learn more (in English).

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