Unemployment increase in Brazil this quarter is seasonal, according to IBRE

This is mainly due to the year-end hirings, due to the increased sales of the Christmas holidays. Several sectors fire people right after Christmas, says the researcher Rodrigo Leandro de Moura.
机构
05 六月 2014

The increase in the average unemployment rate recorded by the latest release of the Continuous National Sample Survey (PNAD) by IBGE is explained by a seasonal adjustment movement, said the researcher in the field of Applied Economics of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE), Rodrigo Leandro de Moura. Among the last three months of 2013 and the first quarter this year, the average unemployment rate in Brazil went from 6.2 to 7.1%.This is mainly due to the year-end hirings, due to the increased sales of the Christmas holidays. Several sectors fire people right after Christmas, he said, when he added that the trade sector can hold layoffs until after the carnival. But, in any case, such unemployment increase is due to such seasonal layoffs. Rodrigo also highlighted that, compared to the same period last year (Q1 2013), the rate has decreased from 8% to 7.1%.Unemployment among young people is common even in other countriesAccording to Rodrigo Leandro de Moura, high unemployment among young people between 18 and 24 years of age also calls attention - and reached 15.7%, the national average in the early months of 2014. The Northeast is the region of the country which recorded the highest unemployment rate among young people: 20.1%, compared with 16% of the North, 15.8% in the Southeast, 12% in the Midwest and 9.1% in the South. In Moura's opinion, this group has always recorded high unemployment rates in many countries, because they have less experience and they are going through the educational process. It does not reach a point of concern, but the measures of active employment policies can be improved. Some of them are already having an effect, such as PRONATEC, PROUNI and FIES, which have encouraged young people to extend their study cycles, which increases their employability as it extends the time of entering the labor market, he said.Unemployment rate among women raises concernWomen also help thicken the group that reaches higher unemployment levels. According to IBGE, the analysis showed significant differences in the unemployment rate between men and women across the country. In the first quarter this year, the rate was estimated at 5.9% for men and 8.7% for women, and the North region recorded the highest difference - 10.5% among women compared to 5.8% among men. In the Northeast 11.9% of women are unemployed compared to 7.9% of men. I think this problem raises more concern and may indicate some possibilities: the lower educational level of women in these regions or discrimination. More important than the unemployment level among women in the North and Northeast regions is that the difference for men it is also higher in these regions. These two possibilities should be empirically checked, said Moura.

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