Trade Confidence in Brazil records the lowest rate since 2010, FGV indicates

This is the third consecutive month with decreasing results: in April, the inter-annual change was -3.1%, and -2.1% in March. The average quarter index was 117.4 points ? the lowest of the historical series started in March 2010.
机构
27 五月 2014

The Trade Confidence Index (ICOM), elaborated by FGV's Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) decreased in the quarter ending in May, with a 4.4% decrease, compared to the same period of last year. This is the third consecutive month with decreasing results: in April, the inter-annual change was -3.1%, and -2.1% in March. The average quarter index was 117.4 points ? the lowest of the historical series started in March 2010.The worst numbers of ICOM were due to the decreased satisfaction with the current situation and optimism for the months to come. The inter-annual change of the Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) went down to -7.2% in May, from -7.0% in April. The quarterly inter-annual change of the Expectations Index (IE-COM) dropped to -2.6%, from -0.4% considering the same period. With this result, the indicators of Trade Survey show decreased economic activity within the sector in the second quarter.Retail Confidence boosts the decreaseThe five main trade segments indicate deceleration between April and May, with highlight to restricted Retail and Vehicles, motorcycles and parts. The confidence index of the first one was the main influence in the decrease of ICOM, dropping to -1.7% in May, from -0.6% in April.As for the Vehicle, motorcycles and parts segment it kept the decreasing trajectory starting in November of last year, with change rates decreasing to -16.9% from -12.9%, respectively, considering the same periods. For Construction material, quarterly inter-annual changes dropped to -5.6% from -3.6%; and for Extended Retail, which aggregates the previous three segments, the change rate was -4.6% in May, from -2.8% in April.Expectation also gets worseThe Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) reflects the perception of the sector regarding the current demand. Based on the average of the quarter ending in May, 13.8% of the companies consulted assessed the current demand as strong, and 23.8% as weak. In the same period of 2013, such percentages were 16.3% and 19.3%, respectively.From April to May, considering the quarterly inter-annual comparison, the indicator that measures the optimism with business situation in the following six months was the main influence to the decrease of the  Expectations Index (IE-COM), dropping to -4.0%, from -2.4%. As for the change rate related to the indicator that measures the optimism with sales in the three following months went down to -1.2%, from 1.6%, within the same period.

Our website collects information about your device and browsing activity through the use of cookies seeking to allow features such as: improving the technical functioning of web pages, measuring the diffusion of the website and offering relevant products and services through personal advertisement. To find out more about the information and cookies we collect, visit our Cookie Policy and our Privacy Policy (available soon in English).