Leading Indicator of Employment rises 2.3 points in December, reaching highest level since July 2023

"In order to maintain the positive trajectory and increase expectations for hiring, clear signs of a recovery and a reduction in uncertainty in the country are needed,” said Rodolpho Tobler, an economist at FGV IBRE.
经济学
11 一月 2024
Leading Indicator of Employment rises 2.3 points in December, reaching highest level since July 2023

FGV IBRE’s Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp) rose 2.3 points in December, to 77.3 points, the highest level since July 2023 (78.0 points). In terms of three-month moving averages, LIEmp increased 0.3 points, to 75.8 points.

“After a series of negative results, LIEmp ended 2023 on a positive note. It’s still too early to celebrate this result, especially given the indicator’s current level. The pace in 2024 is still uncertain and it will depend a lot on how economic activity reacts over the course of the year. In order to maintain the positive trajectory and increase expectations for hiring, clear signs of a recovery and a reduction in uncertainty in the country are needed,” said Rodolpho Tobler, an economist at FGV IBRE.

Highlights of LIEmp

In December, six of LIEmp’s seven components made a positive contribution, especially the “Business Trend – Industry” indicator, which contributed 1.3 points. Other positive highlights were the “Future Local Employment – Consumers,” “Current Business Situation – Industry” and “Current Business Situation – Services” indicators, which contributed 0.5, 0.4 and 0.3 points, respectively. On the other hand, the only indicator that made a negative contribution was “Business Trend – Services,” which contributed minus 0.6 points.

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