Brazilian Trade Confidence drops in May
The Trade Confidence Index (ICOM), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV IBRE), fell 4.1 points in May, down from 96.7 to 92.6 points – returning to the same level as that of November 2017. In quarterly moving averages, the indicator retreated 1.0 point after eight consecutive increases.
“After starting the year with consistent highs, the decrease in trade confidence in May indicates that the sector already sees a deceleration in the pace of sales growth. For the first time in the year, confidence in the resilient durable goods segment also retreated in the month. The decrease in current perception suggests that the recovery in sales should remain gradual and face some mishaps throughout the year”, said Rodolpho Tobler, Coordinator of the Trade Survey at IBRE.
In May, 11 of the 13 segments surveyed retreated. The Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) fell 4.7 points, down to 89.4 – the lowest level since last January (88.0 points). The Expectations Index (IE-COM) fell 3.2 points, down to 96.2 points – the lowest level since September 2017 (95.6 points).
After four months of consecutive increases, satisfaction in the trade sector decreased in the month and also in quarterly moving averages. The negative result affected both the durable and nondurable goods resellers segments, which had been showing a sluggish recovery in recent months. The bad news in May was the fall in the durable goods ISA-COM, which was showing a more consistent recovery influenced primarily by the falling interest rates and the weak basis for comparison.
The May 2018 edition gathered data from 1,160 companies between May 2 and 22. The next Trade Survey results will be published on June 27, 2018.
Go to the website for more information on the survey.