The Business Confidence Index (ICE), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV IBRE), fell 0.6 points in May to 92.8 points, the lowest level since November 2017 (92.1 points).

"After remaining steady at the beginning of the year, business confidence has declined for the second consecutive month, influenced by dissatisfaction with the slow pace of the economy, political uncertainties and the worst external economic outlook. Information collected for this edition of the index closed on May 23, giving no time to capture the effects of the truckers' strike. It is possible that the economic and political developments of this crisis will lead to worse expectations in June", says Aloisio Campelo Jr., Public Statistics Superintendent at FGV IBRE.

The Business Confidence Index (ICE) consolidates the confidence indexes of the four sectors covered by the Business Surveys produced by FGV IBRE: Industry, Services, Commerce and Construction.

The Current Situation (ISA-E) subindex remained stable in the month at 90.3 points, interrupting the sequence of 16 consecutive highs. The Index of Expectations (IE-E) fell by 0.9 point to 97.4 points, the lowest level since December (97.4 points). The distance between the two indicators has gradually declined since February, from 10.2 to 7.1 points, an approximation that stems from the non-virtuous combination of ISA-E loss of breath and IE-E drop.

Confidence fell in the sectors of Trade (-4.1 pts) and Services (-2.4 pts) and remained virtually constant in Industry and Construction. The Commerce and Services sectors also contributed (50% each) to the decline in ICE in the month.

Diffusion of Trust

In May, confidence was registered in 47% of the 49 segments that make up ICE. Considering quarterly moving averages, the proportion of segments up, remained constant in relation to the previous month, in 44% of the total.  For the May 2018 edition, information was collected from 4,903 companies between May 2 and 23.

The next release of ICE will take place on July 2, 2018. For more information, visit the website.