Business confidence ends 2023 in decline

This was its fourth consecutive decline, reaching the lowest level since April. In terms of the three-month moving average, there was a decrease of 0.9 points in December.
经济学
08 一月 2024
Business confidence ends 2023 in decline

FGV IBRE’s Business Confidence Index fell 0.6 points in December, to 91.2 points. This was its fourth consecutive decline, reaching the lowest level since April. In terms of the three-month moving average, there was a decrease of 0.9 points in December.

“Business confidence ended 2023 at a very similar level to 2022, suggesting little progress over the course of the year. The results for the last quarter show a slight improvement in perceptions of the present moment but more caution in relation to expectations for the coming months. The pace of confidence in 2024 is still uncertain, as it will depend on the continued improvement of the macroeconomic environment and the recovery of some key activities, such as services, which reported worse conditions in their latest evaluations,” says Rodolpho Tobler, an economist at FGV IBRE.

In December, the Business Expectations Index was relatively stable, rising 0.3 points to 88.5 points. Looking at the indicator’s different components, there was a 3.4-point increase in Forecast Employment, taking it to 97.9 points, close to the neutral level of 100 points. The component that gauges business trends six months ahead rose 1.6 points, to 90.6 points, while Forecast Demand remained stable at around 88 points. The Current Business Situation Index also went up 0.3 points, but to a higher level than the Expectations Index, reaching 95.8 points. Looking at its different components, the Current Business Situation indicator remained unchanged at 97.0 points, while Current Demand fell 0.2 points to 94.9 points.

The Business Confidence Index combines confidence indexes for the four broad sectors covered by FGV IBRE’s business surveys: Industry, Services, Commerce and Construction.

Industrial confidence reached its best result since October 2022, rising 2.6 points in December, to 95.3. Construction and Commerce remained relatively stable, although at different levels (96.0 and 87.5 points, respectively). The Services sector experienced the fifth consecutive drop in its confidence rate, falling 2.4 points to 92.0 points. This result mainly reflects the worsening view of service sector business people about the future.

Confidence diffusion

In December, business confidence improved in 55% of the 49 segments that make up the Business Confidence Index, up from 47% in November.

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