Construction confidence remains stable in January

"January’s results should translate into positive numbers for the sector in 2019”, said Ana Maria Castelo, IBRE’s Construction Project Coordinator.
经济学
29 一月 2019
Construction confidence remains stable in January

The Construction Confidence Index (ICST) of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) stabilized at 85.4 points in January. In quarterly moving averages, the indicator rose 1.2 points, marking its fifth consecutive hike.

“Business expectations recovered the same rate of January last year, indicating a cautious stance among business owners regarding demand behavior in the next few months. However, companies’ contract portfolio improved significantly throughout 2018 and started 2019 at a high, which explains the more favorable outlook on the current business environment. January’s results should translate into positive numbers for the sector in 2019”, said Ana Maria Castelo, IBRE’s Construction Project Coordinator.

This stability in the ICST was influenced exclusively by the improvement in the current situation. The Current Situation Index (ISA-CST) rose 0.4 point in January, up to 75.1 points – the highest level since April 2015 (75.5 points). Such improvement was driven by the indicator assessing current contract portfolio conditions, which rose 1.3 points, up to 73.4 points – its highest level since June 2015 (73.9).

The Expectations Index (IE-CST) dropped 0.6 point, down to 95.9 points. This drop in expectations was driven by the indicator assessing forecast demand for the next three months, which dropped 3.8 points, down to 93.4 points.

The sector’s Capacity Utilization Level (NUCI) varied 0.1 percentage point, totaling 66.7%. The Labor NUCI was stable and the Machinery & Equipment NUCI rose 0.2 percentage point.

In January, confidence components of the Buildings segment ran in opposite directions, closing the gap between IE and ISA by 6.3 points. The current gap (12.8 points) is the lowest level since November 2016 (12.4), driven by the improved perception among business owners regarding the real estate market in the current situation. “There are high expectations for the real estate market to recover, after showing an upsurge in new launches and sales in 2018. The segment recorded the highest upswing in contract portfolio in January, adding to this positive outlook. However, this is still very far from the boom seen between 2007 and 2012, as shown by the lower expectations”, said Castelo.

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