Consumer confidence rises for the fourth consecutive time

Consumer perspective regarding the current situation and expectations for the next few months improved in January. The Current Situation Index (ISA) rose 1.2 points, totaling 76.8 points – the index’s third consecutive increase, reaching its highest level since May 2018 (77.2).
经济学
28 一月 2019
Consumer confidence rises for the fourth consecutive time

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) rose in January for the fourth month in a row. The index rose 3.6 points to a total of 96.6 points – the highest level since February 2014 (97.3 points) –, up 8.0 points year over year.

“Consumers have started the year with an optimistic outlook. The improved confidence seen in the last four months is a reflection of more optimistic prospects regarding the economy, household financial recovery, employment and inflation. Consumers are gradually starting to perceive an improvement in the job market, adjusting their household budget, and lowering their indebtedness. This scenario should remain favorable towards continued recovery and the CCI should surpass the 100-point mark in the first half of the year”, said Viviane Seda Bittencourt, Consumer Survey Coordinator.

Consumer perspective regarding the current situation and expectations for the next few months improved in January. The Current Situation Index (ISA) rose 1.2 points, totaling 76.8 points – the index’s third consecutive increase, reaching its highest level since May 2018 (77.2). The Expectations Index (IE) rose 5.1 points, climbing from 105.6 to 110.7 points – the highest value since June 2012 (111.8 points).

Among the CCI’s components, the indicator that gauges optimism regarding the household financial situation in the coming months was the main driver behind this boost in confidence, rising 7.4 points to 111.6 points – the highest level since February 2013 (112.0 points). Perception regarding the current moment remained stable. This boost in optimism regarding finances led consumers to increase their durable goods shopping intention. The shopping intention indicator rose 3.2 points and totaled 87.6 points – the highest level since May 2018 (88.6).

Regarding the economic situation, both evaluations and prospects were more favorable. The indicator that measures consumer satisfaction with the current financial situation rose 2.4 points, up to 84.2 points – the highest level since December 2014 (87.2) –, while the indicator that gauges optimism regarding the economy in the coming months rose 3.8 points.

Confidence trends were favorable across three of the four income ranges surveyed. The highest variation came from the range of households with income of up to BRL 2,100.00, due to the significant improvement in better prospects regarding the financial situation of these households. The CCI-R1 rose 7.1 points, up to 103.1 points – the highest level since January 2014 (104.2 points).

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