Consumer Inflation expectation drops between December and January

“The combination between the dropping inflation and lower uncertainties surrounding the political and economic environments ultimately led to lower inflation expectations in the last three months. The average consumer forecast is now closer to the expectations of financial market analysts (4.1%), which is extremely rare, revealing a strong anchoring of inflation expectations”, said Viviane Seda Bittencourt, coordinator of the Consumer Survey of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE).
经济学
25 一月 2019
Consumer Inflation expectation drops between December and January

The average inflation expectation among Brazilian consumers for the next 12 months dropped 0.4 percentage point between December 2018 and January 2019, down to 5.0% – the same rate recorded in April 2018 and the lowest since August 2007 (4.9%). The index dropped 0.4 percentage point year over year.

“The combination between the dropping inflation and lower uncertainties surrounding the political and economic environments ultimately led to lower inflation expectations in the last three months. The average consumer forecast is now closer to the expectations of financial market analysts (4.1%), which is extremely rare, revealing a strong anchoring of inflation expectations”, said Viviane Seda Bittencourt, coordinator of the Consumer Survey of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE).

The analysis per expected inflation intervals reveals a higher number of consumers expecting values within the tolerance limit (2.75% to 5.75%) of the inflation target of 4.25%, set by the Brazilian National Monetary Council for 2019, rising from 53.4% of the total in December to 61.4% in January – the highest rate of the last six months. The number of consumers expecting values below the lower limit (2.75%) dropped 0.9 percentage point in the same period (down to 3.5%). The number of consumers expecting inflation to surpass the upper limit (5.75%) dropped from 42.2% to 35.1% – the lowest rate of the last six months.

Except for the group of households with monthly income of up to BRL 2,100.00, inflation expectation dropped across all income ranges in January. The sharpest drop came from the income range of BRL 2,100.01 to BRL 4,800.00, where inflation expectations dropped 0.6 percentage point, down to 5.3% – the lowest rate since March 2008 (5.1%).

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