Executives participate in debate on scenarios for Brazil in security, economics and politics
The OneMBA Program of FGV’s Sao Paulo School of Business Administration (EAESP) welcomed on April 10 Raul Jungmann, former Minister of Public Security and Defense, economist Eduardo Velho, of GO Consultoria, and political scientist Fernando Abrucio, Professor at FGV EAESP, at the event “Desafios e Perspectivas para o Brasil” (“Challenges and Prospects for Brazil”) event, which focused on issues of security and defense, economics, and the political scenario.
Raul Jungmann drew attention to the fact that Brazil never had a federal system of Public Security, emphasizing that, to the present day, he was the country’s first and only Minister of Security to propose something in this sense.
“In an attempt to centralize the fight against crime, the Unified Public Security System (SUSP) was created, aiming to structure a system of intelligence for the entire territory,” he explained.
The minister highlighted the fact that the public policies adopted in the country regarding the subject are restricted to the prison system, as opposed to the fight against street violence.
“Despite having the third largest prison system in the world, behind China and the United States alone, Brazil has a deficit of almost 400,000 vacancies, and violence is not reduced.”
Jungmann also stressed that the system, in addition to being expensive, is not able to be effective. It is estimated that the cost of a vacancy occupied in prisons reaches R$60,000 per year.
“The economic costs of crime account for 5.5% of the Brazilian GDP. And the focus of the police work is on low-impact crime, which does not require intelligence or investigation.”
From the standpoint of the macroeconomic scenario, Eduardo Velho showed a more optimistic outlook. Despite the difficulties on the horizon, the economist stressed that the economy is continuing to grow and that inflation, despite being subject to some pressure, is under control.
“The prospect of approving the Social Security reform can boost public spending as it can contribute to reducing compulsory expenditure. In the external scenario, the expectation of closing the trade agreement between the U.S. and China, as well as the Chinese economy showing signs of recovery, are bringing good prospects for Brazil,” he exemplified.
In turn, the political scenario is more complex. According to Fernando Abrucio, the honeymoon period of the new administration was eclipsed by the comings and goings of the Social Security reform.
“The government is beginning to realize that the country’s reality is more complex than what was shown in the campaign, which, by the way, was completely atypical.”
According to Abrucio, despite being elected based on a discourse of morality and against corruption and the left, the lack of more direct communication, an ideological approach and constant interference of his children put the president in a very complex situation.
“But, even worse is the lack of a strong dialogue with Congress. It is crucial for the approval of promised reforms and for the implementation of public health and education policies. Although the president has been elected on other bases, all surveys indicate that the general population is more concerned about healthcare and education. So far, the government has not been able to fill the ranks of its ministries,” argued Abrucio.
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