FGV EMAp and Fiocruz analyze risk of COVID-19’s spread across Brazil

Study indicates that the most serious cases are likely to occur in the South and Southeast regions, which have the most senior citizens.
应用数学
26 三月 2020
FGV EMAp and Fiocruz analyze risk of COVID-19’s spread across Brazil

Researchers at the FGV´s School of Applied Mathematics (FGV EMAp) and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) have published a report presenting an updated analysis of the risk of the dissemination of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) across Brazil’s different micro-regions, arising from the occurrence of sustained transmission in the country’s two biggest urban centers, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. The report also identifies the micro-regions that are most socially vulnerable and have the most elderly people.

According to the study, urban centers in the country’s South and Southeast regions are highly likely to record severe cases in the short term due to the relatively large share of high-risk people and close links with Sao Paulo and Rio.

However, the report says that the most vulnerable locations are mainly in the Northeast and North regions. The micro-regions with a high probability of experiencing an epidemic in the short term, and which are also very socially vulnerable, are concentrated in the Northeast, in the states of Ceará, Paraíba and Bahia.

Flávio Codeço, a professor at FGV EMAp and a member of the team that produced the study, explains that this report does not capture the impacts of the quarantine and social distancing recently adopted in the country’s biggest cities.

“The impact of social distancing and reduced mobility throughout the country will be felt in the next few days. They are the only weapon we have in the fight against a more acute epidemic that would overwhelm our health system’s service capacity,” he says.

The complete study is available here