FGV IBRE researcher Lívio Ribeiro is one of the world’s five best analysts of the Chinese economy, according to a ranking published by Bloomberg. He is part of a select group that also features Samuel Tse of BDS Bank Ltd, Hong Kong; Zhengwei Lu of Industrial Bank Co Ltd; Ding Shuang of Standard Chartered Hong Kong; and Raymond Yeung of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.

In addition to China, Ribeiro specializes in studying external circumstances and their impacts on the Brazilian economy, interest rates and exchange rates. He also studies the economy of Argentina, Brazil’s main trading partner in South America.

“The unexpectedly slow growth of the Chinese economy in the second quarter of 2023 confirmed our fears that the country’s economic recovery would be slower after the rebound at the beginning of the year when the ‘zero-COVID’ lockdown measures were lifted,” Ribeiro says.

“There are structural factors at play and profound shocks in key sectors of the economy, such as real estate, causing Chinese consumers to be more cautious and leading to weaker results from public policies aimed at boosting growth. There is a problem with demand, which is not being adequately addressed by the authorities. We estimate GDP growth of 5.2% in 2023, still above the government’s 5.0% target for this year. However, this will require a lot of stimulus and increasingly questionable capital allocation, which will soon resurrect discussions about the efficiency and limits of the Chinese economic miracle,” he adds.