GDP Monitor points to 0.1% decline in April
FGV’s GDP Monitor indicates, in the seasonally adjusted series, a 0.1% decline in the GDP in April compared to March, as well as a 0.9% decline in the quarter ended in April (Feb-Mar-April), compared to the previous quarter (Nov-Dec/18-Jan/19). In the year-on-year comparison, the economy retracted by 0.3% in April and remained stagnant in the mobile quarter ended in April.
“The 0.1% drop in the economy in April, according to FGV’s GDP Monitor, is the third consecutive monthly retraction recorded in the year. The performance of agriculture and industry explains this slowdown in economic activity. The 12-month cumulative rate reached 0.6%, the lowest growth since the 12-month cumulative rate until October 2017. In the 12-month cumulative rate until April, the industry returns to the negative territory after 14 months of growth. It should be noted that extraction and processing also returned to negative variations,” said Claudio Considera, coordinator of the GDP Monitor.
The 0.1% drop observed in April, compared to March, is mainly explained by the weak performance of agriculture and livestock, which fell by 1.9% (with decreases in both agriculture and livestock), and industry, which fell by 0.4%. The only exception in the industry was the 0.3% growth in processing. In the comparison with the same month of the previous year, the 0.3% decrease in the economy was mainly a reflection of the retractions in agriculture (-2.0%) and in all industrial activities (-2.3%). From the standpoint of demand, both in the comparison of the seasonally adjusted series and in the year-on-year comparison, only imports fell (-2.6% and -1.7%, respectively).
The full study is available on the website.