U.S.-China tension and global economic slowdown increase uncertainty in September 2019
Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br) increased 2.7 points between August and September 2019, to 116.9 points, remaining high in historical terms. The six-month moving average rose for the second consecutive time, this time by 1.3 points.
“Like last month, the increase in the Brazilian uncertainty indicator in September was mainly driven by external issues, such as U.S.-China trade tensions and the possibility of a stronger global economic slowdown in 2020. However, domestic factors also contributed to the indicator’s decline this month, especially subjects such as tax reform and doubts about the pace of Brazil’s economic growth,” says Aloisio Campelo Jr, public statistics superintendent at the FGV´s Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV IBRE).
In September, both components of IIE-Br moved in the same direction. The Media component, which has the larger weighting, rose 1.5 points, to 115.9 points, contributing 1.4 points to the aggregate result. The Expectations component, after dropping 22.8 points in August and September, rose 5.8 points, to 113.7 points, contributing 1.3 points to the indicator’s overall score.
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