Brazilian economy’s post-recession behavior is topic of 2018 outlook debate
FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) will host the meeting Outlook for 2018: Economy and Politics, on December 11, from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m, at FGV’s main office. The purpose of the meeting is to break down the expected behavior of the economy in 2018, considering the upcoming general elections. This is IBRE’s first outlook meeting since the Brazilian Business Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE) officially announced the end of the recession, which began in early 2014.
“The main issue will still be the fiscal framework. The economy’s recovery should help raise tax revenues, as seen in recent months, and non-recurring revenues from concessions and privatizations, but expenses will also increase. There will be a lot of discussion surrounding the spending ceiling, including with regard to the 2019 budget. In addition, we should be careful with investment recovery, which may still be too weak due to political and fiscal uncertainties, and the gradual normalization of the monetary policy in wealthy countries,” said Armando Castelar, one of the lecturers and Coordinator of Applied Economics at IBRE.
According to Castelar, the major reforms should not move forward next year, but there will be room on the agenda for other important discussions. “There is a microeconomic agenda with items such as drafting a new bankruptcy law and the positive record, for instance, which could be addressed in 2018,” he said.
The Coordinator of IBRE’s Macro Bulletin, Silvia Matos, calls attention for some potential mishaps in Brazil’s economy next year, which should be discussed at the meeting. “There is a very real risk of power shortages in 2018. Adjustments should focus on energy tariffs, reducing the disposable income of households and raising business expenses. Another risk is the uncertainty that still pervades the electoral scenario next year,” said the economist.
During the event, aimed at professionals, students, researchers, and others interested in the subject, experts will address topics such as investment recovery, political scenario and its impact on the economy, uncertainties, foreign scenario, structural reforms, and economic growth across different sectors.
The event will also be attended by José Julio Senna, head of IBRE’s Center for Monetary Studies, Murilo de Aragão, political scientist at Arko Advice, and Samuel Pessôa, associate researcher at IBRE. The meeting will be held at FGV’s Cultural Center, at Praia de Botafogo, 186, Botafogo. Go to the website to learn more and register.