Brazilian job market: Leading Indicator of Employment reaches highest level in the series
Economics
09 March 2018

Brazilian job market: Leading Indicator of Employment reaches highest level in the series

The Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp), calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), rose 1.9 points in February.

The Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp), calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), rose 1.9 points in February, totaling 109.6 points – the highest level in the series. This points to a potentially faster recovery in the job market over the next few months.

“The optimism surrounding stronger economic growth this year and the prospect of greater hiring in 2018 explains the upsurge in the Leading Indicator of Employment”, said Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho, economist at IBRE.

The Coincident Indicator of Unemployment (CIU) remained relatively stable with a variation of 0.4 point, totaling 97.1 points. Despite the positive result, the indicator is still falling in terms of the quarterly moving average. 

“Despite the prospect of future improvement, job creation, and expectations regarding a strong upsurge in new formal jobs in 2018, the unemployment rate remains high. The CIU reflects the high level of unemployment in the country. Even with the creation of new jobs, the unemployment rate should remain high”, said Fernando de Holanda Barbosa Filho.

The higher LIEmp in the month is attributed to an increase in six of its seven indicators, especially those who measure the current business situation in the Service Sector and the Manufacturing Industry, with variations in the margin of 4.4 and 4.9 points, respectively. 

The positive result of the CIU was influenced mainly by better evaluations of consumers with monthly household income between BRL 2,100.00 and BRL 4,800.00, whose Employment Indicator (reversed) rose 3.1 points.