Business Confidence climbs to highest level since April 2014
The Business Confidence Index (ICE) of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) rose 3.8 points in November, up to 95.0 points – the highest level since April 2014. Expressed in quarterly moving averages, the index rose 1.1 point. The ICE consolidates the confidence indexes of all four sectors covered by Business Surveys carried out by IBRE: Industry, Services, Trade and Construction.
“The significant increase in the ICE in November confirms that business confidence had been affected in previous months by the exacerbated uncertainties associated with the electoral period this year. Reaching the highest level since the beginning of the 2014-2016 recession, the index now approaches the neutral level of 100 points, which indicates a normal situation in historical terms. This month’s evolution was mainly determined by the improvement in expectations, which depict moderate optimism on the evolution of the economy in the early months of the new administration”, said Aloisio Campelo Jr., Superintendent of Public Statistics at IBRE.
The Current Situation Index (ISA), which assesses the perception of entrepreneurs about the current state of the economy, rose 1.4 point after three consecutive drops, up to 89.9 points. The Expectations Index (IE-E) climbed 3.0 points, totaling 102.0 points. This is the first time that the IE-E has exceeded the level of 100 points since November 2013 (100.3).
There was increased confidence in the margin for all sectors that make up the ICE for the first time in 2018. Expressed in quarterly moving averages, the variation was only negative in Industry (1.8 point), whose confidence now converges with that of the Services and Trade segments, after having remained above the other three segments since January 2015. Construction confidence remains the lowest among the four sectors, but the November increase is good news.
Confidence rose in 84% of the 49 sectors covered by the ICE in November. Last month, the upward trend was seen in 57% of the segments.
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