Business confidence rises in January

The Business Confidence Index (ICE) of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) rose 1.9 points in January, up to 98.0 points. After the fourth consecutive hike, the indicator reached its highest level since January 2014 (98.5 points). In quarterly moving averages, the index rose 2.2 points in the month.

“Business confidence finally returns to the levels recorded before the big 2014-2016 recession. Expectations continue to rise, despite current scenario indicators still pointing towards a sluggish economy. After the third month in a row above 100 points, the Business Expectations Index (IE) shows some optimism regarding the business environment’s progress over the next three to six months for the first time since late 2012. Some of this optimism stems from expectations regarding changes to the economic policy and social security reform, which should continue to steer business confidence during the first half of the year”, said Aloisio Campelo Jr., Superintendent of Public Statistics at the IBRE.

The Business Confidence Index (ICE) consolidates confidence indexes across four sectors covered by the IBRE’s Business Surveys: Industry, Services, Trade and Construction.

After rising in the last two months, the Current Situation Index (ISA) dropped 0.1 point, down to 90.9 points. The Expectations Index (IE), in turn, rose for the seventh time in a row, climbing 1.7 points and totaling 104.5 points – its highest level since December 2012 (104.9 points).

Among the ICE’s sub-indexes, the Industry and Service confidence indicators rose by 2.6 and 3.6 points over the previous month, respectively. Trade confidence dropped 0.2 point, stabilizing after a strong upward trend. The Construction sector’s confidence rose steadily since the third quarter of 2018 and stabilized in January.

In quarterly moving averages, confidence rose across all of the ICE’s sectors.

Confidence rose by 65% across all 49 sectors covered by the ICE in January. Last month, the upward trend covered 61% of the segments. The service sector stood out in the month, revealing a confidence hike of 85% across all activities surveyed.

The January 2019 edition of the index surveyed 4,399 companies between January 01 and 25. The next ICE will be published on February 28, 2019.

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