Consumer Confidence grows but remains low in historical figures

Despite the rise, the index remains low in historical figures. In quarterly moving averages, the indicator remains in decline.
Economics
26 June 2019
Consumer Confidence grows but remains low in historical figures

Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) grew by 1.9 points in June, reaching 88.5 points, interrupting a sequence of four consecutive declines. Despite the rise, the index remains low in historical figures. In quarterly moving averages, the indicator remains in decline.

“The improvement reported in June was determined by the calibration of expectations, which had worsened a lot between January and May, from an optimistic to a pessimistic profile in just four months. Now, they are portraying a neutral profile. With the labor market moving slowly, the results may still be slow to have a significant influence on perceptions about the economy at the moment,” said Viviane Seda Bittencourt, Coordinator of the surveys.

In June, satisfaction with the current moment remained stable, and expectations for the coming months have improved. The Current Situation Index (ISA) remained at 73.4 points while the Expectations Index (IE) grew by 3.2 points, reaching 99.7 points, reversing part of the 2.2-point drop reported in May.

Regarding the present situation, the indicator that measures the degree of satisfaction with the economy recovered 0.9 point after three months in decline. In turn, the assessments on the financial situation of households have worsened again. With the decrease of 0.8 point, the indicator reached 67.4 points, the lowest level since October 2018.

Regarding the prospects for the following months, the indicator that measures the optimism related to the evolution of the financial situation of households was the one that contributed most to the confidence increase in the month, growing by 8.1 points, reaching 99.0 points, the highest value since March (100.9). This gain, however, was not enough to offset the cumulative loss of 20.7 points between January and May. The indicator that measures the degree of optimism with the future economic situation rose by 3.9 points, reaching 111.9 points.

The increase in confidence in June occurred in all income classes and was stronger in families with monthly incomes up to R$ 2,100, for which it rose by 4.0 points in the month, after four consecutive drops, influenced by the improvement in both the situation and expectations. In households with monthly incomes above R$ 9,600, a 2.5-point increase was reported in the month, mainly influenced by an improvement in expectations related to the financial situation. 

The full study is available on the website.