Consumer Confidence Index reaches 80.9 points, highest level since November 2020
FGV IBRE’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 4.7 points in June, to 80.9 points, the highest amount since November 2020, when it was 81.7 points. In terms of three-month moving averages, the index increased 4.2 points, after six consecutive months of decline.
“Consumer confidence continues to recover for the third consecutive month. From the perspective of families, perceptions of the current situation and future prospects are both improving. For the first time since July of last year, the intention to purchase durable goods has advanced significantly, which seems related to greater optimism regarding the labor market in the coming months, although there are differences between income groups,” says survey coordinator Viviane Seda Bittencourt.
In June, consumers’ perceptions about the present moment and their expectations for the next few months both improved. The Current Situation Index rose 2.9 points, to 71.6 points, while the Expectations Index went up 5.9 points, to 88.3 points. Both reached their highest level since November 2020 but were still low in historic terms.
Among items that measure the degree of satisfaction with the current situation, the indicator that measures consumers’ perception of the general economic situation increased 2.8 points in June, to 76.7 points, the highest value since March 2020 (82.1). The indicator that measures satisfaction with personal finances rose 2.9 points to 67 points, returning to the highest figure since November 2020.
Regarding expectations, the indicator that measures purchasing momentum in the coming months contributed the most to the increase in confidence in June, rising 11.1 points, to 64.6 points, the highest level since November 2020 (69.5 points). However, this indicator is still very low compared to before COVID-19. Between January 2018 and February 2020, the average value of the indicator for expected purchases of durable goods was 82.7 points. The indicator that measures prospects regarding the state of the economy reached its highest value since February 2020 (116.9), rising 3.5 points to 113.1 points. Regarding prospects for families’ financial situation in the coming months, the indicator increased 2.4 points to 88.8 points.
A breakdown by income groups reveals an improvement in confidence in all groups, especially consumers with the most purchasing power, with monthly income of more than R$9,600, among whom the Consumer Confidence Index rose 4.6 points to 89.9 points, the highest level since February 2020.
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