Economists debate prospects for the Brazilian economy in the second quarter
The prospect of closing another year with a GDP barely reaching 2% has turned the fiscal reform agenda into the cornerstone for a resumption of growth in the country. The latest industry and service sector indicators indicate that economic activity has returned to stagnation, increasing uncertainty rates and raising market moods as forecasts from several analysts following the elections were for GDP growth in the range of 3%. To discuss economic expectations for the second quarter, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) and O Estado de S. Paulo will be holding, on May 23, from 9 a.m. to 12 p.m., in the FGV 9 de Julho Auditorium (Rua Itapeva, 432, Bela Vista, São Paulo, SP) the “Seminário FGV IBRE – Estadão Perspectivas 2019” (“FGV IBRE – Estadão 2019 Prospects Seminar").
According to Silvia Matos, Coordinator of FGV’s IBRE Macro Bulletin, investors are still cautious as there are some doubts about the size of the pension reform that will be approved and when this will happen. Matos emphasizes that the government’s victories in key guidelines under debate will be crucial for the recovery of confidence in the solidity of the Brazilian economy.
“The government has suffered defeats in Congress. This ends up creating more uncertainty. In this context, investments are the most impaired aspect. Further contraction of investments in the first quarter is expected in relation to the last quarter of last year. In addition, we have witnessed a slowdown in the growth rate of household consumption while the labor market is suffering, which this creates a bad vicious circle of lower income, less investment, less employment, and greater uncertainty.”
The Seminar will bring the new forecasts of the FGV IBRE on economic activity and bring together experts to discuss and propose solutions so that the country can escape the trap of low growth.
The event will be attended by José Júlio Senna, Head of the Center for Monetary Studies of FGV IBRE; Silvia Matos, Coordinator of the IBRE Macro Bulletin; Samuel Pessoa, associate researcher at FGV IBRE, and Carlos Melo, political scientist at Insper. The event will be moderated by Estado de S. Paulo columnist Celso Ming.
Please visit the website for more information and to make your registration.