With an eye on 2020, seminar in Brasilia discusses fiscal policy directions
The macroeconomic indicators show that the Brazilian economy is at a standstill and that it is expected to accelerate only from 2020 onwards, depending on the outcome of the approval of the Social Security reform, the debate on the tax reform, the state fiscal balance plan, and other structural measures. The first item of this discussion is next year’s budget, which is expected to be submitted by the government by August. In order to discuss the profile of this budget and the impact of the fiscal adjustment to be made by the State, FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economy (IBRE) and the Valor Econômico Journal will be holding the seminar “Os Caminhos da Política Fiscal” (“The Paths of the Fiscal Policy”) in Brasilia. The meeting will be held on July 8, from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m., at FGV Brasilia (SGAN, Quadra 602, Módulos A, B and C, Brasilia, DF).
Government representatives, experts and economists from FGV IBRE will be outlining the government’s key challenges to put Brazil back on the road to sustainable growth. The event will be attended by Waldery Rodrigues, Special Secretary of Finance of the Ministry of Economy; Rodrigo Orair, Director of the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI); Hélio Tollini, consultant in the Budget Consultancy of the Chamber of Deputies; Nelson Barbosa and Manoel Pires, associate researchers at FGV IBRE and professors at UnB; and Valor’s columnist and special reporter, who will be closing the event.
“The state’s situation is complex. We will be handling several issues simultaneously, seeking to build solutions. Social Security is undoubtedly the most important issue. A favorable outcome would certainly help. From the moment in which we know what has been possible to approve in Social Security, we will begin to have greater clarity of the fiscal situation, the size of the budget, the extent to which there is room for other expenses, how the minimum wage policy will be affected, and what will be the room for investments. It is a sequential analysis,” said Manoel Pires.
According to the experts, resolving the fiscal situation is a key condition to unlock the economy. The government has been able to regularize the golden rule to continue paying its expenses in the current year, but this is a topic that should reappear in the coming years. Manoel Pires believes that the event will be an opportunity for the government to present its vision on these issues and for the economists to think about possible paths.
“Several issues will be addressed in the coming weeks. One of them is the budget, which will bring the discussion on the minimum wage, readjustment of the public officials’ compensation, and the prospect of compliance with the golden rule. There is also the expense ceiling rule, which the government has already expressed the desire to adjust in order to compensate Petrobras and to transfer funds to the states,” said Pires.
Please visit the website for more information and to make your registration.