FGV GDP Monitor: positive economic result influenced by consumption
The FGV GDP Monitor points to seasonally adjusted growth in economic activity of 0.3% in November 2019 compared to the previous month, and 0.8% growth in terms of the moving quarter ended November, compared to the quarter ended August. Year-over-year, the economy expanded 1.6% in November and 1.9% in the moving quarter ended November.
These results incorporate revised export figures from the Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX) for September and October. Accordingly, and as announced in the previous FGV GDP Monitor, the third-quarter results have been re-estimated, altering the official results previously reported by IBGE, the national statistics agency, for some demand components. The last section of this report presents a comparison between IBGE’s results before the revision of SECEX’s database and the GDP Monitor’s estimate of the figures to be released by IBGE on March 4, 2020.
“The positive economic result in November, compared to October, was influenced by consumption, in both the domestic and external markets, with growth in household consumption and exports. This growth in household consumption has been driven by higher consumption of services. In relation to gross fixed capital formation, despite the positive annual result, the seasonally adjusted figures show a third consecutive decline in this indicator’s monthly rate in November. This is mainly explained by a slowdown in machines and equipment. Such results continue to indicate that the economic recovery is more anchored in consumption growth than investment,” says Claudio Considera, the coordinator of the FGV GDP Monitor.
The economy grew 0.3% in November, compared to October, and 1.6% compared to November 2018. In both the seasonally adjusted and year-over-year comparisons, there was growth in the three main economic activities: agriculture, manufacturing and services. In terms of demand, only household consumption increased during both timeframes.
The complete study is available here.
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