FGV/IBRE researcher analyzes Argentina?s current economic environment

According to Lia Valls, although the neighboring country has already paid the amount due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and restructured its debt with the Paris Club in May this year, there is another problem. 
Institutional
09 July 2014

The researcher in the area of Applied Economics of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE), Lia Valls, made an analysis on the current situation in Argentina. According to her, although the neighboring country has already paid the amount due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and restructured its debt with the Paris Club in May this year, there is another problem. Argentina went into moratorium in 2001, paid what it owed, but the crisis turned to the 7% of private creditors who did not accept the proposed debt restructuring in 2005 and 2010, she said.Lia Valls also said that the mode of operation proposed to the Argentine government is trying to negotiate with the vulture funds - which correspond to the 7% who did not accept the debt restructuring. There's not much left to do, because, since it was a decision of the judiciary of the United States, it remains beyond the negotiation forums among Nations. It is very unlikely that the U.S. executive will question the decision of the judiciary. Still according to the researcher, the episode signals that it is necessary to negotiate some form of institutionalization within the IMF or other multilateral organization to ensure the conditions under which debtor countries negotiate the restructuring of their debts with private creditors.Regarding Brazil, Lia pointed out that the problems in Argentina may have negative consequences, especially with regard to the export of manufactured goods. According to her, Brazilian exports are already decreasing due to the low growth of our neighbors, and the export of cars is the most affected. In the short term it is not possible to compensate for the loss of the manufacturing market, especially the car market in Argentina, diverting Brazilian exports to other markets. The more the crisis intensifies there, the more these flows will be affected, she concluded.Please click here to check more FGV/IBRE analyzes.

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