Such as had occurred in the preceding 11 months, the Trade Confidence Index (ICOM) of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) began 2014 below the level recorded in the same period of the previous year. Compared to the last few months, however, the result of January 2014 can be considered favorable: the average index for the quarter ended in January was only 1.6% below the same period last year, the best result since February last year (-0.9%) on the same basis of comparison. In December 2013, the interannual variation of the quarterly index was -3.0%.The recovery in the results was mainly influenced by the expectations regarding the following months. The quarterly interannual change of the Present Situation Index (ISA-COM) went from -6.4%, in December to 5.5%, in January. Whereas the Expectations Index (EI-COM) of the sector closed with a 1.4% quarterly interannual change in January, a significant improvement compared to the -0.4% change in December.Overall, the general result of the research signals a moderate pace of activity for the industry by early 2014, supported by more optimistic expectations for the following months.Please click here to read the full analysis (in Portuguese).