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IBRE reviews GDP growth expectation for the last quarter of 2013

With the release of the data from the Monthly Survey of Services and the translation of the Monthly Industrial Survey indicators for the product categories adopted in the System of National Accounts, the expected GDP growth during the last quarter of 2013 was reviewed from 0.3% to 0.1%.

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The expectation the Macro Bulletin?s staff of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) has regarding the disclosure of the result of the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2013 does not ignore the hypothesis that the Brazilian economy experienced a technical recession in the second half of last year.With the release of the data from the Monthly Survey of Services and the translation of the Monthly Industrial Survey indicators for the product categories adopted in the System of National Accounts, the expected GDP growth during the last quarter of 2013 was reviewed from 0.3% to 0.1%.In terms of demand, a slowdown in household consumption for the fourth quarter of the year was also projected, as well as attenuation in the rate of contraction of gross fixed capital formation (which should present a 2.3% contraction in the third quarter of 2013).Also, reflecting the evolution of the current account deficit recorded in the fourth quarter of last year, an increase in exports of nonfactor goods and services was projected slightly lower to imports. The estimate also included a reduction in inventories during the period.Please click here and read more about the projected GDP for the fourth quarter of 2013 (available in Portuguese).