The GDP growth above the expected in the second quarter was not enough to reverse the little optimistic expectations of economists for the rest of the year. In a seminar held yesterday, September 16, researchers in the area of Applied Economics of FGV's Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) announced a growth forecast of 2.3% of the GDP for the third quarter this year compared to the same period of 2012. This represents a decline of 0.4% at the margin, stressed IBRE's Macro Bulletin seminar coordinator, Regis Bonelli. IBRE's estimates for the GDP in 2013 are an expansion of 2.5%, with a growth of 0.9% in the fourth quarter.According to Bonelli, agribusiness must represent a negative contribution in the third quarter - since the volume of the harvest should be reduced compared to previous quarters -, as well as the processing industry. Since the beginning of the year the industry shows a volatile behavior. In August, the same production level of July shall repeat, which is not good, with the installed capacity recording a small decrease and an increase in the level of inventories between July and August. Regarding services, on the other hand, the economist pointed out that the good result recorded until now was due to transient factors, such as the trade of trucks and the good performance of the agricultural and livestock sectors, which in addition to the positive harvest numbers, presented an acceleration in the slaughter data of livestock.At the event, the experts highlighted the persistence of the downward trend in business confidence indicators, mainly of capital goods producers, indicating a possible slowdown of investments. Although the indexes show a recovery compared to July's levels, when there was a sudden decrease, this recovery has proved to be partial, representing only 60% of the business case, and the industry recording the lowest index since July 2009. Consumer confidence, on the other hand, stopped decreasing, after nine months in decline, but it remained at a level below that observed in historical terms, said the deputy superintendent of IBRE's Economic Cycles, Aloisio Campelo.Regarding the inflation outlook, the deputy superintendent of Inflation at the Institute, Salomão Quadros, stressed that in September the IPCA rate accumulated in 12 months remained below 6% for the first time in the year, and that it shall not exceed this limit. Household meals positively contribute to this scenario. Our projection is that it will remain at 8.2% in the 12 months ending in December, and there is still a reduction margin, due to a new decrease cycle of in natura products such as beef. In addition, the effects of the exchange were smooth if compared to other recent periods of devaluation, he said.Quadros further highlighted the contribution of administered prices for this result, estimating that they will close the year at a rate of 1.7 %, against 4.3% in 2014, when increases in gasoline and electric power will put pressure. The economist pointed out that this scenario may give margin to an anticipation of the increase of gasoline, of 7%, which would take administered rates to 2.6% and 3.5 %, in 2013 and 2014, respectively.