Sensitive to the latest information available, the analysts of the level of activity performance in Brazil quickly reviewed their projections for GDP growth in 2013 as soon as IBGE released the results for the second quarter of the year, and FGV's Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) team was no exception.

In fact, with a 1.5% growth in the second quarter and a slight upward revision in first quarter results, the statistical loading effect for the second half is 2.5 %. Much of the short-term confidence loss for the indicators until then available - due to the resistance of inflation, slow industrial growth, poor infrastructure, rising interest rates and work income with increasingly lower real increases - seemed to have been forgotten.

Once the euphoria that followed the GDP release for the second quarter subsided, analysts realized once again that the uncertainty and the lack of predictability are still hiding more lasting signs of a recovery which, in the view of some observers, had started in the first half this year.

However, even with a 0.4% decrease forecast for the GDP in the third quarter, the forecast for the year closed is a 2.5% growth - which represents a strong acceleration compared to 0.9% in 2012.

To learn more about the level of activity forecast, go to IBRE's Macro Bulletin - which as from this month includes the bimonthly section Observatório Político (Political Monitoring Center).

The link is in Portuguese.