Indicator that anticipates labor market trends retreats in January

This monthly decrease - the first statistically significant indicator since last July - is still considered insufficient to be interpreted as a trend reversal, since the quarterly moving average curve remained slightly upward in January 2014.
Institutional
07 February 2014

The Leading Indicator of Employment (IAEmp) of the Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV/IBRE) fell by 0.9% in January compared to the previous month, considering data free of seasonal influences. However, this monthly decrease - the first statistically significant indicator since last July - is still considered insufficient to be interpreted as a trend reversal, since the quarterly moving average curve remained slightly upward in January 2014.The factors that most negatively contributed to IAEmp's evolution were those which measure the degree of optimism of entrepreneurs in relation to business trends within the next six months and the one that measures the force of hirings by businesses, both prepared by the Industry Survey, with changes of -4.5% and -3.2%, respectively.IAEmp is composed of a combination of series extracted from the Industry, Services and Consumer Surveys, and is capable of predicting the direction of the labor market in the country. For further methodological information, please see the note at the end of this Press Release.Please click here and check out the full analysis (in Portuguese).

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