The Business Cycles' Deputy Superintendent of FGV's Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), Aloísio Campelo, believes that 2013 will be no better than last year for industrial players for three reasons: internal and external economic uncertainties; adoption and withdrawal of industry stimulus measures by the federal government, such as tax exemptions for some sectors and supply of loans subsidized by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), and, finally, the high inflation that reduces the profit margin of businesses, which cannot pass on all their costs to the consumer in a short period of time. According to Campelo, the industry confidence has been more volatile than usual, following the scenario of the industrial evolution. For the second semester, after this decrease in production, a moderation in the growth rate is expected. Nothing too bright, somewhere around 2.5%, which has been seen in recent years. Business people are not so confident. A 2% decrease in the Brazilian industrial production announced last Tuesday, July 2, by the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE), confirms the trend that has been signaled since February by the Industry Confidence Index by FGV's Brazilian Institute of Economics.