FGV IBRE’s Leading Indicator of Employment (LIEmp) rose 2.3 points in December, to 77.3 points, the highest level since July 2023 (78.0 points). In terms of three-month moving averages, LIEmp increased 0.3 points, to 75.8 points.

“After a series of negative results, LIEmp ended 2023 on a positive note. It’s still too early to celebrate this result, especially given the indicator’s current level. The pace in 2024 is still uncertain and it will depend a lot on how economic activity reacts over the course of the year. In order to maintain the positive trajectory and increase expectations for hiring, clear signs of a recovery and a reduction in uncertainty in the country are needed,” said Rodolpho Tobler, an economist at FGV IBRE.

Highlights of LIEmp

In December, six of LIEmp’s seven components made a positive contribution, especially the “Business Trend – Industry” indicator, which contributed 1.3 points. Other positive highlights were the “Future Local Employment – Consumers,” “Current Business Situation – Industry” and “Current Business Situation – Services” indicators, which contributed 0.5, 0.4 and 0.3 points, respectively. On the other hand, the only indicator that made a negative contribution was “Business Trend – Services,” which contributed minus 0.6 points.

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