Mathematical model analyzes probabilities of results of Copa América and Women’s World Cup

Brazil ranks as the favorite to win Copa América, played in the country after 30 years, with a 58% probability. In turn, in the Women’s World Cup, the USWNT appears as the favorite to win its fourth title, with a 33% probability.
Mathematics
26 June 2019

Copa América and the Women’s World Cup have garnered the attention of Brazilian football lovers. Both competitions are on their final stages and, just like last year, during the FIFA World Cup held in Russia, FGV’s School of Applied Mathematics (EMAp) provides a website with a probabilistic analysis of all matches in the tournament, from the observation of goals scored and conceded in each match of the FIFA-affiliated national teams in the last four years in more than 1 million simulations.

Following the first stage of the South American tournament, Brazil ranks as the favorite to win Copa América, played in the country after 30 years, with a 58% probability. The main opponents of the home team are Uruguay (13%) and Colombia (12%), which, like the Brazilians, confirmed their qualification to the quarterfinals by ranking first in their groups. Argentina, with the star Lionel Messi, which qualified for the knockout phase in the last round, ranks fourth with a 7% chance of winning the title. Chile, two-time champion of the tournament, has a 5% probability. Peru (3%), Venezuela (2%) and Paraguay (1%) are also contenders.

In turn, in the Women’s World Cup, the USWNT appears as the favorite to win its fourth title, with a 33% probability. Larger winners of the tournament, the United States will be facing the competition of seven European teams, which fuel their dream of overcoming this favoritism. Germany, with 22%, the home team, France, with 13%, England, also with 13%, and the Netherlands, with 11%, are the ones that appear in the sequence with the best odds of winning the title. Sweden (4%), Norway (2%) and Italy (1%) are also contenders for the Women’s World Cup.

The purpose of the study is not to guess what will happen in the tournaments; however, it is reasonable to claim that, on average, the model has a good performance. In the 2018 FIFA World Cup, when the same method was used, the expected results were sufficient for the research to finish first in the FifaExperts Forecasting Competition, in which FGV EMAp competed with several other models.

The odds for the Copa América teams are available on the website.

In turn, the mathematical model with the results of the Women’s World Cup is available on the site.

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