Meeting debates economic performance this year and prospects for 2020
The seesaw of GDP projections for 2019 is now expected to stabilize at 1.1%, the same performance recorded in the last two years. Still, this is good news, as the outlook has improved in the second half, after some experts had predicted full-year growth of just 0.5%. Looking ahead, specialists see light at the end of the tunnel and highlight the approval of structural reforms and the performance of the international economy as relevant points. At a meeting called Prospects for 2019 – 4th Quarter, to be held by Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Brazilian Institute of Economics (FGV IBRE) and the Estado de S.Paulo newspaper on December 12, from 9:30 am to 12:30 pm at FGV’s site at Avenida 9 de Julho, 2029, Bela Vista, Sao Paulo, experts will debate the performance of macroeconomic indicators, the national and international situation, and expectations for next year. The event is free to attend, open to the public and aimed at economists, students and other interested parties.
The first panel discussion, dedicated to the economic situation, will feature FGV IBRE’s Silvia Matos, Bráulio Borges and Livio Ribeiro, as well as Fábio Alves, who writes Estado de S.Paulo’s Broadcast column. Now that inflation is under control, the public pension reform has been approved and interest rates are low, the sluggish recovery of the post-crisis job market is one of the main obstacles to renewed economic growth.
Brazil also needs to look at the external situation, which calls for caution, according to specialists. A study by FGV IBRE found that the latest crisis in Argentina, which will have a new president in 2020, knocked 0.5% off Brazil’s GDP growth this year. The trade war between the United States and China, as well as the global economic slowdown, may also affect growth in 2020.
The second panel discussion, focused on politics, will feature Marcos Nobre of Campinas State University, and Fernando Veloso and Samuel Pessoal of FGV IBRE. The moderator will be Fábio Alves. The objective will be to understand the effects that President Jair Bolsonaro’s departure from the Social Liberal Party (PSL) and the possible creation of a new party, called “Alliance for Brazil,” will have on votes in Congress during the upcoming election year.
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