Retrospective 2021: Study on epidemiological modeling of malaria wins award from SBMAC

The thesis’ central subject was epidemiological modeling of malaria in the Alto Juruá region of Acre, a transmission hotspot in the Americas.
Mathematics
28 December 2021
Retrospective 2021: Study on epidemiological modeling of malaria wins award from SBMAC

Felipe José Pinto Antunes, who has a master’s in mathematical modeling from Fundação Getulio Vargas’ School of Applied Mathematics (FGV EMAp), has received an Odelar Leite Linhares Master’s Dissertation Award from the Brazilian Society of Applied and Computational Mathematics (SBMAC) for his study titled “Fish farming and malaria: a model of mosquito population control.”

The study, selected by a committee of six esteemed Brazilian researchers, was carried out under the guidance of Professor Maria Soledad Aronna of FGV EMAp and in collaboration with Oswaldo Cruz Foundation researcher Cláudia Codeço.

The thesis’ central subject was epidemiological modeling of malaria in the Alto Juruá region of Acre, a transmission hotspot in the Americas. Elimination of malaria is one of the goals of the 2030 agenda and now that the disease has become restricted, there is a need for models to guide actions at local level. The dynamic model proposed in the thesis integrates the dynamics of malaria and management of vegetation around fish ponds, using assumptions derived from empirical data collected locally.

The thesis had both theoretical and practical results. It covered all stages in the construction of a mathematical model, including on-site data collection with an Oswaldo Cruz Foundation team, analysis of differential equation theory, the structuring of a model, and analysis of the model’s asymptotic properties. The model has some original features, integrating disease dynamics with landscape ecology and environmental management. Analytical results based on the model’s asymptotic behavior were deduced and numerical simulations were run, taking into account different fish pond maintenance periods.

For more information about SBMAC’s awards, click here.

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