São Paulo Law School and EAESP discuss prospects for elections this year

In Toledo's opinion, who is also responsible for Estadão Dados, statistics and information platform of the newspaper, there are two factors that determine victory in presidential elections: the evolution of affiliation to political parties and the candidates' time on TV.
Institutional
10 March 2014

São Paulo Law School (FGV /DIREITO SP) and the Public Administration course of São Paulo School of Business Administration (FGV/EAESP) organized, on February 27, the meeting ?Cenário Político e Eleições 2014? (Political Scenario and 2014 Elections) with the participation of José Roberto Toledo, from the newspaper O Estado de São Paulo, and professors Marco Antônio Teixeira and Fernando Luiz Abrucio, of EAESP. The mediation was carried out by Professor Luciana Gross Cunha, of São Paulo Law School. 

In Toledo's opinion, who is also responsible for Estadão Dados, statistics and information platform of the newspaper, there are two factors that determine victory in presidential elections: the evolution of affiliation to political parties and the candidates' time on TV. The data show that PMDB is the political party that most elects mayors in Brazil and has a large stock of affiliates, but it is going through a decaying process. The only two parties that have grown in number and affiliations are PT and PSB, but PT has a longer history, which explains why the candidacy of Dilma is so strong, he explained. 

In the opinion of Professor Marco Antonio Teixeira, a scenario of doubts is outlined for this election mainly due to a lack of stability in the candidacy of Aécio Neves. The polls on voting intentions show that since October 2012 Aécio has been dropping in the voters' intention pool. If in that month the candidate had 21% of the voters' preference, in February it dropped to 17%. This performance weakens the resistance against the current elected candidate, he said. 
The professor also pointed out that TV time is also essential. Dilma will have more than 50% of the time for the presidential campaign on TV, which is equivalent to about 13 minutes, while Aécio will have four minutes. 

Finally, Fernando Abrucio explained why 2014 is a different year, described the difficulties of the candidates in structuring a compelling speech, found an absence of hegemonic axis of debate and spoke about the confusion found in state elections, especially in the five most representative states (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul).  
In his opinion, even with the victory of Dilma, the 2014 elections will represent the end of the Lula cycle based on the axis of social inclusion. The voters liked the theme, but they want something more. The issue is that the opposition could not make a speech, nor organize itself to offer a compelling alternative to the electorate. As a result, we will have a very uncertain 2015, concluded Abrucio. 

Please click here to view the photos of the meeting.

 

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