Talk addresses probabilities of second wave of infection and local extinction of COVID-19 

Professor Flávio Codeço Coelho will show a methodology for calculating such probabilities, based on a stochastic transmission model and the theory of branching processes.
Mathematics
09 June 2020
Talk addresses probabilities of second wave of infection and local extinction of COVID-19 

On June 10, at 2 pm, Fundação Getulio Vargas’ School of Applied Mathematics (FGV EMAp) will hold a talk titled “The Likelihood of a Second Wave and Local Extinction of the COVID-19 Epidemic.” The subject will be explored by Professor Flavio Codeço Coelho, who will present mathematical models applied to communicable diseases, with a particular emphasis on the COVID-19 epidemic.

Coelho will show a methodology for calculating such probabilities, based on a stochastic transmission model and the theory of branching processes.

“At a time when many countries have started to resume activities and lift mobility restrictions, it is important for us to be able to assess the risks of a second wave and the probabilities of local extinction of the epidemic in locations that have managed to substantially reduce the number of active cases through lockdown measures,” he says.

Flavio Codeço Coelho has a doctorate in quantitative biology from the University of Texas, a master’s in biomedical engineering from Rio de Janeiro Federal University and an undergraduate degree in biology, also from Rio de Janeiro Federal University. He is currently an associate professor at FGV EMAp, where he conducts research in the area of mathematical, statistical and computational modeling of infectious diseases.

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