After the export value increased by 16% and imports by 35%, in a monthly comparison between August 2017 and 2018, the growth rate slowed to 2.1% (exports) and 4.7% (imports), when comparing September 2017 and 2018. This took place in a scenario in which the devaluation in real terms of the effective foreign exchange rate was 16% (September 2017/18), which would boost exports. The uncertainties associated with a scenario of foreign exchange rate instability tend to postpone decisions on the part of foreign trade operators. In addition, the August results were influenced by the purchase and sale of oil platforms (see September ICOMEX). With regard to the closing of the trade balance in 2018, the trade surplus year-to-date until September was USD 44.3 billion, USD 9 billion lower than the same period in 2017, which signals a surplus on the order of USD 55 billion for 2018.

The share of manufacturing in exports decreased, reaching its lowest percentage since 1980 (35%) in the historical series year-to-date until September. The counterpart is the growing participation of commodities, where the three main ones (soybeans, iron ore and oil) account for 31% of the total exported. In addition, two products – soybeans and oil – contributed to 60% of the increase in exports in the comparison between the January-September 2017 and 2018 periods.

The concentration on commodities leads China to increase its share in Brazilian exports, reaching 26.3% year-to-date until September, followed by the United States (11.4%) and Argentina (6.8%). In this trade war scenario between the two main markets targeted for Brazilian exports, there is a need for caution on the part of trade policymakers for Brazil to preserve both markets.

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