In October, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), calculated by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), increased by 4.0 points, from 82.1 points up to 86.1 points, returning to a level close to May this year (86.9 points), but still remained at a low level in historical terms. The result is also positive (0.3 p.p.) in quarterly moving averages.

“The result shows that, despite not yet having the results of the election, consumers are hopeful and optimistic about the coming months. The end of the election period reduces political uncertainty and raises the expectation of changes to economic policy when the new administration starts. The ‘honeymoon effect’ is expected, but the continuity of these gains in confidence will depend on effective actions by the next President”, said Viviane Seda Bittencourt, Coordinator of the Consumer Survey.

In October, the assessments on the current situation got worse, while expectations for the coming months improved. The Current Situation Index (ISA) dropped 0.4 point, from 72.3 points down to 71.9 points. The Expectations Index (IE) rose 6.9 points, from 89.7 up to 96.6 points, the highest level since April 2018 (99.0 points).

In regard to the general economic situation, the indicator that measures the level of satisfaction with the economy at the time varied 0.3 point, reaching 77.8 points. The indicator that assesses the perspectives for the economic situation in six months increased by 6.1 points, up to 106.1 points, the highest level since May 2018 (107.1 points).

With regard to family finances, the indicator that measures the satisfaction of consumers with the financial situation at the time dropped 1.1 point, down to 66.5 points, remaining at a low level in historical terms. On the other hand, the indicator that assesses optimism regarding personal finances over the next few months rose 1.7 point, up to 93.4 points.

After two months of decreases in the buying momentum, the indicator that measures the intent to buy durable goods increased by 12 points, reaching 90.7 points, the highest level since October 2014 (92.9). This was the indicator that most contributed to the improvement in confidence in October.

There was increased confidence in all income ranges, except for families with income between BRL 4,800 and BRL 9,600. The positive highlight was the income range with the least purchasing power (family income of up to BRL 2,100.00 per month), whose index rose 9.3 points, influencing the increase in confidence in the month. For these consumers, there is a great expectation of improvement in the economic situation, household financial situations, intent to buy durable goods and employment.

The October 2018 edition collected information from 1,944 households between October 1 and 20. Go to the website to read the complete study.