The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) rose 7.1 points in November, reaching 93.2 points – the highest level since July 2014 (93.8). After rising for the second month in a row, the index now accumulates an increase of 11.1 points between October and November – the highest rate since September 2005.

“After a period of low confidence, consumers are now more optimistic regarding the country’s economic prospects, household finances and employment. In addition to being more ‘hopeful’ about the future, consumers are also less dissatisfied with the present. This result was apparently influenced by lower political uncertainties and the ‘honeymoon’ phase with the new administration”, said Viviane Seda Bittencourt, Coordinator of Consumer Surveys.

In November, both the assessments on the current situation and expectations for the next months showed better results. The Current Situation Index (ISA) rose 2.7 points, climbing from 71.9 points to 74.6 points – the highest level since May (77.2 points). The Expectations Index (IE) rose 9.8 points, going from 96.6 to 106.4 points – the highest level since February 2013 (106.7 points). This shows that the rate of optimistic answers trumps pessimistic outlooks for the first time since March this year, showing an increase of 16.7 points in the last couple of months.

The highlight in the current situation was the indicator gauging the level of satisfaction with the economy, which rose 3.3 points and totaled 81.1 points – the highest level since May this year (82.0 points).

Regarding future prospects, the indicator that gauges optimism towards the economy’s progress in the next six months was the main driver behind the upsurge in November, rising 20.0 points and totaling 126.1 points – the highest level in the series. Expectations regarding the household situation were also optimistic, rising 13.5 points and totaling 106.9 points – the highest since September 2013 (108.2 points).

Despite the recovery in optimism regarding personal finances, there was a 45% offset of last month’s increase of the indicator that measures the intention to purchase durable goods, which fell 5.4 points in November, down to 85.3 points.

Confidence increased across all income classes. In the quarterly moving averages, however, there is a sharper peak among consumers with higher purchasing power, whose confidence has been rising since September, recording a 4.3-point high in November, compared to 3.1 points in the CCI’s moving average indicator. The highest increase between October and November came from the lowest income range (14.1 points), but confidence in this range had already dropped 3.9 points in September.

The November 2018 edition collected information from 1776 households between November 1 and 21. The next Consumer Survey results will be published on December 21, 2018.

The complete study is available on the website.