The FGV-GDP Monitor reveals 1.0% growth in the GDP in the third quarter, compared to the second quarter, and 0.4% growth in September, compared to August, according to the seasonally adjusted series.

This is an exceptional quarter for FGV-GDP Monitor estimates. In the near future, when the Quarterly National Accounts for the third quarter are released, the IBGE will incorporate the recently released final annual results for the 2016 GDP, reviewing the rate from -3.5% to -3.3%, and changing the previously disclosed results for 2017 and 2018.

In addition to the usual changes this quarter, with the introduction of new information, the IBGE should incorporate the institutional changes that determine the internalization of oil platforms (Repetro-Sped). Therefore, it was essential to emulate such procedures, despite the limitations of this exercise. As such, it is important to highlight that the variation rate of the 2017 GDP, estimated by the FGV-GDP Monitor, was revised from 1.0% to 1.1%. The 2018 quarters compared year-over-year will also be changed, according to FGV-GDP Monitor estimates: the first quarter of 2018 was revised from 1.2% to 1.4%, and the second quarter from 1.0% to 1.2%.

“In the third quarter, the economy continued to grow (1.0%), compared to the second quarter, in the seasonally adjusted series. This is the seventh consecutive positive rate since the end of the recession. Compared to the third quarter of 2017, in the non-seasonally adjusted series, the rate was 1.7%”, said Claudio Considera, Coordinator of the FGV-GDP Monitor.

We also highlight the breakdowns of elements from the optics of demand, exclusive to the FGV-GDP Monitor, which allow a more robust analysis: household consumption and gross fixed capital formation.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation had the highest growth rate (7.7%) since September 2013. This result is mainly due to the increase in machinery and equipment (22.8%), a result of the incorporation of oil platforms in the calculation of the GFCF.

Household Consumption still had positive performance (1.7%), with emphasis on the consumption of Durable Goods (6.3%) and Services (2.0%). This is the sixth positive quarterly rate in the series (since June 2017).

The complete results of the FGV-GDP Monitor are available on the website.