The Investment Intent Indicator for Industry of FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) rose 4.4 points in 4Q18 over the last quarter, totaling 117.4 points – the highest level recorded since the first quarter of 2018 (123.7 points). The indicator assesses the investment intent among industrial corporations, helping anticipate economic trends.

“Despite the improvement in the margin, the indicator is still far from the average recorded in the two-year period preceding the 2014-2016 recession, showing that investment recovery should remain moderate over the next few months. Among the factors preventing a stronger upsurge in the indicator are persisting economic uncertainties and skepticism regarding the economic recovery pace in the fist year of the new administration”, said Aloisio Campelo Jr., Superintendent of Public Statistics of the IBRE.

The upsurge seen in the quarter brings the indicator back to a similar level compared to 2Q18 (116.1 points), recorded before the truck drivers’ strike. The indicator was also above 100 points for the second consecutive time, indicating that the ratio of companies that intend to increase productive investments in the next 12 months is higher than those intending to cut down on investments.

Between the third and fourth quarter of 2018, there was an upshot in the ratio of companies that want to invest more, climbing from 28.3% to 30.7%, as well as a lower ratio of companies that want to invest less, down from 15.3% to 13.3%.

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