Central challenges of COP30 reveal critical gaps in the global climate agenda

With COP30 already underway in Belém, recent analyses indicate that the global climate regime faces a set of structural gaps that challenge the fulfillment of the Paris Agreement goals. In an article published in Valor Econômico, researchers Guarany Osório and Guilherme Lefèvre, from the Center for Sustainability Studies (FGVces), present a thorough diagnosis of these deficiencies and the necessary paths to overcome them.

The starting point is the discrepancy between national commitments and the trajectory needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The most recent assessments from the UNFCCC show that, although the new NDCs show progress, there is still not enough scale to reverse the trend of increasing global emissions. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report reinforces this scenario by estimating that current policies put the world on a path of temperature increase between 2.3°C and 2.8°C, even with full implementation of the commitments.

Another significant bottleneck concerns the production of fossil fuels, which remains misaligned with climate limits. Projections show that, by 2030, planned levels exceed by 500% the volume of coal, 31% of oil, and 92% of gas compatible with the 1.5°C target. The persistence of these plans contradicts commitments and highlights the gap between ambition and real energy policy.

The climate financing gap also remains significant. At COP29, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of $300 billion per year after 2025 was established, a value considered insufficient given the demand from developing countries, estimated at $1.3 trillion per year. The international financial architecture continues to be fragmented and slow, with a strong dependence on debt instruments. The newly launched Baku to Belém Roadmap proposes a structured agenda to increase resources and prioritize adaptation, loss and damage, and just transitions, but its success will depend on concrete commitments.

In the field of adaptation, the gap between need and supply is even greater. Developing countries will need $310 to $365 billion per year until 2035, while international public funding amounted to only $26 billion in 2023, according to UNEP. The goal of doubling resources by 2025, set in the Glasgow Pact, is far away.

Another critical point is the urgency of integrating forests and ecosystems at the center of the climate agenda. The Brazilian proposal to launch the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) at COP30, with an initial contribution of $1 billion, seeks to offer predictable payments to countries that keep their forests standing. To achieve global scale, it is estimated that at least $125 billion needs to be mobilized. The absence of a robust international strategy continues to limit the effectiveness of these initiatives. 

The analysis identifies, thus, five major gaps that challenge COP30:

• Inadequate ambition of climate commitments
• Gap between ambition and implementation
• Misalignment between climate goals and fossil fuel production
• Insufficient financing
• Lack of scale and integration in adaptation actions

For the authors, COP30 represents a decisive test for multilateralism and the ability of countries to transform promises into concrete actions. The Brazilian presidency proposes a "global mutirão" to reinforce the UNFCCC regime, connect the climate agenda to the real life of people, and accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The success of the conference—in a scenario of increasing geopolitical fragmentation—will depend on the coordination between governments, the private sector, and civil society, as well as the consolidation of effective and lasting means of implementation.