GDP Monitor indicates stagnation in the economy in February

The Monitor do PIB-FGV (GDP-FGV Monitor) indicates an economic stagnation in February compared to January, based on the analysis of the seasonally adjusted series. Compared to the same month in 2024, February's growth was 2.7%. The accumulated rate over the 12 months up to February was 3.1%.

"The stagnation presented by the economy in February, compared to January, is due to a combination of factors. The growths recorded in industry and investments are offset by declines in consumption, agriculture, and exports. The services sector, in turn, remained stagnant during the month, just like the GDP. These results reveal that, despite some promising areas, there is a loss of strength in the economy with declines in important GDP components. Despite a challenging context, with greater external uncertainty and a tendency for higher domestic interest rates, the Brazilian economy did not register a contraction,” according to Juliana Trece, research coordinator.

Detailed analysis of demand components

The graphical analysis of demand components was conducted on the interannual quarterly series as it shows less volatility than monthly rates and those seasonally adjusted, allowing a better understanding of the trajectory.

Household consumption grew 2.7% in the three-month period ending in February

Since the three-month period ending in November 2024, consumption has been slowing down, although it still registered a growth of 2.7% in the three-month period ending in February. This reduction in growth was observed across all consumption categories.

FBCF grew 8.2% in the three-month period ending in February

The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (FBCF) showed strong growth, although it remains on the declining trend observed since the third quarter of last year. This slowdown in growth was widespread.

Exports contracted 2.8% in the three-month period ending in February

The negative performance of agricultural and mineral extractive product exports was the main factor responsible for the contraction in exports.

Imports grew 15.2% in the three-month period ending in February

The 15.2% growth of imports in the three-month period ending in February shows a reversal of the declining trajectory that had been observed. This is due to the significant increase in capital goods imports, with emphasis on oil exploration platforms.

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