Study projects slowdown in consumption and retail in Brazil until 2026
Indicator developed by FGVcev indicates more modest sector growth, with more expensive credit and household income at a moderate pace
Consumption and retail in Brazil are expected to lose momentum in the coming quarters, according to the fourth edition of the Consumer and Retail Trend Indicator (ITCVcev), developed by the Center for Retail Excellence of FGV EAESP, in partnership with FFC-MDS Financial Services.
Based on data from the National Accounts and retail trade, the study forecasts growth of 1.10% in the ITCVcev in 2025 and only 0.56% in 2026. The increase in interest rates — which may raise the cost of credit to almost 48% per year — and the slowdown in household income mass are among the factors explaining the scenario.
According to the author, Ricardo Meirelles de Faria, the sustainability of growth will depend on fiscal adjustments and consumption stimuli.
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