FGV’s Department of Public Policy Analysis (DAPP) has mapped the French election debate on Twitter over the two rounds of the presidential race, which culminated with the victory of centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, against far right representative Marine Le Pen, on May 7. The survey sought to identify how network profiles supported both finalists and which candidates ‘gave in’ the most space to Macron or Le Pen, from their own centers of influence.

The analysis included mentions, in French, associated with all candidates and the specific context of the election, covering a total of 4.9 million posts, between April 10 and May 3. Throughout the first round, Macron was the most far-reaching influencer, concentrating 10.4% of the debate, more than doubling Le Pen’s 4.9%, for example. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose campaign was marked by an extensive use of social networks and technological innovations, came in second in the concentration of interactions via Twitter, totaling 6.9%. The group called ‘profils non alignés’ (non-aligned profiles) represents a heterogeneous group, which interacts during elections but does not support any politician in particular.

After the first round, however, the profiles aligned to Fillon, already in proximity to those interacting with Le Pen, practically came together under the same debate spectrum. This causes them to join forces in the visualization of virtual regions of influence: the Fillon-Le Pen cluster accounts for 12.1% of interactions, while Macron is still ahead with 13%. Meanwhile, Mélenchon falls very little, down to 6.6% — which strengthens the hypothesis that the politician’s influence group will unlikely support the winning centrist candidate.

The analysis also shows that the clash between Le Pen and Macron, far from representing an exclusively ideological conflict formation in the second round of the presidential election, was a duel between opposites on Twitter. In both influence networks, there is a greater presence of references to the name of the opponent rather than the candidate, which prompts the engagement of rejection, and not necessarily of public policy debate.

Go to the website to read the complete study, available in Portuguese.