FGV’s Department of Public Policy Analysis (DAPP) has mapped the political debate on Twitter and Facebook regarding the deposition of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to judge Sérgio Moro. Presented on social networks as the brawl of the century, the clash between fans and detractors of Lula and Moro gave rise to the next big thing on Brazilian internet: the third force.

A survey made by DAPP over the 24 hours before and after the interrogation shows that polarization is still dominant on social networks, but is no longer the only relevant expression on Twitter and Facebook. Although less organized than the groups against and in favor of former President Lula, this third political field reveals an attempt to equidistantly evaluate the former President’s deposition, often criticizing both protagonists and the warring tone of the party militants — and sometimes in a satirical way.

The study showed that the interrogation had 650,000 mentions on Twitter, an expressive volume, but less than the 1.5 million mobilized concerning the general strike against the social security labor law reforms. The non-aligned group — profiles not necessarily in the same political field, but that have in common the fact that they do not support nor oppose Lula on the networks — answered, in the analyzed period, for about one-third of the mentions (32.3%). The profiles opposing Lula accounted for 20.7% of the interactions, while those supporting him represented about 19.2%. The remaining 28% are made up of smaller, fragmented groups on the network.

The geographical analysis of the debate on Twitter about the deposition — from the volume of mentions weighted by the population of each state — shows a distributed debate across the country, but with some differences among each cluster. The Federal District and Rio de Janeiro stood out in the group in favor of judge Sérgio Moro, while Sergipe, Minas Gerais, and São Paulo stood out in the pro-Lula group.

In terms of distribution by age group, in relation to the references to Lula, there is a large predominance in the debate of profiles of people over 34 years of age, in contrast to the age distribution of Facebook users in Brazil, in which young people up to this age are the majority. This trend is also seen in other discussions on political and economic themes, for instance, with the youngest in less engagement and participation. And, both in support of Lula as in support of Lava Jato (Operation Car Wash), there is a predominance of profiles of people over 34 years of age.

The analysis suggests that, in the debate about the 2018 scenario, there is an important — and perhaps growing — political field (even if not organized) that is tired of the traditional polarization. In terms of public agenda, this group tends to make room for an agenda that reconciles traditional fields, but goes beyond.

In this sense, the age factor should be an important factor, with youth becoming protagonists in the possible viability of a political alternative. Therefore, it is a movement that tends to try to overcome the dichotomy crystallized in recent years, mobilizing an agenda to improve the political system as a whole and to generate new opportunities.

Go to the website to read the complete study, availabe in Portuguese.