The Business Confidence Index (ICE), released by FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), rose 1.3 points in September, totaling 87.3 points. After the third consecutive increase, the indicator has reached the highest level since December 2014 (87.6 points).

“The ICE’s positive result in September shows that the economic recovery process is gaining momentum, spreading across different industries, and bypassing the political turmoil, responsible for dragging the index down in June. A good indicator of the consistent uptrend in business confidence is the slow but steady improvement in perception surrounding the current conditions of the business environment,” said Aloisio Campelo Jr., Superintendent of Public Statistics at IBRE.

The Business Confidence Index (ICE) consolidates the confidence indexes of four macro-sectors covered by the business surveys conducted by IBRE: Industry, Services, Commerce, and Construction.

Considering the survey’s two time horizons, the main contributor to such increase in business confidence in September was the Current Situation index (ISA-E), which rose 1.2 point compared to the previous month, reaching 82.9 points, while the Expectations Index (IE-E) advanced 1.0 point, up to 93.8 points.

This was the third consecutive month in which the ISA-E advanced more than the IE-E, shortening the gap between the two indicators to 10.9 points – the lowest since May 2016 (6.4 points). The greatest gap between the two indicators is still in the Construction sector (23.0 points), followed by Commerce (11.2), Services (8.4), and Industry (4.3).

Confidence rose across all major sectors in September. The main contributor to the ICE’s 1.3-point hike was Commerce (0.6 point), followed by the Services sector (0.5 point). Industry and Construction contributed with 0.1 point each.

Widespread confidence among sectors

In September 2017, confidence rose 67% across all 49 segments surveyed by IBRE for the ICE index. Considering the quarterly moving averages, segments with higher confidence margin account for 53% of the total.

The September 2017 edition of the index surveyed 5,033 companies between September 1 and 26. The next ICE will be released on November 1.

The complete results and additional survey materials are available on the website.