The monthly Foreign Trade Confidence Index (ICOMEX), calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE), recorded an increase of 15.1% in exported volume and 18% in imported volume, when comparing the months of September in 2016 and 2017. The comparison highlights the growth of 94.5% in the exported volume from the agricultural sector, surpassing the variations recorded in previous months between 2016/2017.

Export prices rose 2.7% in the monthly comparison, caused by increased prices for some commodities, especially iron ore. In the case of imports, capital goods led in total imported volume. The gross fixed capital formation index (GFCF) that grew 5.3% in the comparison between August 2016/2017, recorded another increase of 71.5% (September 2016/2017) after drops exceeding 30% in the months of June and July.

The import price index, on the other hand, maintained its downward trend and fell 3.5% between the months of September 2016/2017. The indicator also highlights that Brazilian exports are increasingly dependent on the Chinese market. Chinese participation in Brazilian exports surpasses that of Latin America, the European Union and the United States.

The accumulated trade surplus for the year in September was US$ 53.3 billion, which exceeds the previous record of US$ 48 billion reported in 2016.

“The recovery of commodities prices that began in 2016 and the growth in world trade in 2017 contribute to this surplus. However, two factors in 2017 should lead to a reduction in the trade surplus. First, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, after having increased 17.4% (price of oil) and 7.1% (prices of other commodities, except oil), the prices of commodities should decelerate in 2018, with oil retracting to 0.2% and other commodities to an increase of 0.5%. Second, expected Brazilian growth between 2.5% and 3% will lead to an increase in imports”, highlights Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) researcher Lia Valls.

The complete results of the ICOMEX are available on the website.